Opinion articles – Estado de SATS

Cuba marches

Estado de SATS — Fri, 31 Jul 2015 02:51:32 +0000

Cuba

Spoken Word & Poetry Event

“La Ruta De La Marcha”

Rafael Alcides Amaury Omnipoeta and Angel Santiesteban

In Support of #TodosMarchamos

For More Information

Contact SATS Center Artistic Director Ailer Gonzalez @ 535-323-5726

The exodus from Cuba is massive and is raging. Why?

Estado de SATS — Thu, 30 Jul 2015 18:25:18 +0000

**FILE** Cubans leave the coast in a raft in this August 1994 file photo in Havana Cuba during the 1994 massive exodus. In mid-August 1994, after a string of boat hijackings, unprecedented rioting and the killing of a Cuban navy lieutenant prompted President Fidel Castro to suggest that those wanting to leave, could. Over about five weeks, more than 30,000 Cubans took Castro at his word and sailed away on makeshift rafts while authorities stood by.(AP Photo/Jose Goitia, file)The words on the raft read: “Hope” (AP Photo/Jose Goitia, file)

The massive exodus of Cubans fleeing the island nation began in 1959. Both Contacto Magazine and Profesor Carmelo Mesa-Lago offer some specifics on the economics of the unraveling processes and there is plenty more on it by other authors and scholars.

The scale of the exodus of Cubans fleeing Cuba, an exodus that has actually grown exponentially since the Obama Castro deal kicked in on December, 2014, will be fully assessed only, once it stops.

For 57 years Fidel and Raul Castro have tried to keep Cubans in Cuba at all costs for the Cuban people, including human lives. There are crimes such as the Remolcador 13 De Marzo in which a group of 72 people, babies included took a tug boat to escape and were hunted down and drowned by Cuban authorities. There are many more who have been incarcerated for trying to leave the island, some for many years.

Before 1959, Cubans did not have “expatriate” communities. Cuba did not produce massive amounts of displaced people. Cuba also had an immigration quota.

Angelica Mora journalist, founder of Radio Marti writes about the continuing exodus of refugees from Cuba and its reasons.

The subject of the depletion of Cuba’s human capital for 57 years is already having major impact on every front. Cuban civil groups have to come together and work on this.

Infinite Exodus

By Angelica Mora

NEW YORK – We are facing a crisis in which Cubans want to escape the island by any means and seize any opportunity to do so. It is a silent exodus that worries US officials and causes problems to those nations Cubans cross, when trying to make their way into the United States.

One of the reasons given by the US government, to carry out the agreements with Havana was that these would help Cuban society, especially the middle class. However, this is unlikely to be fulfilled, for the unwillingness of Raul Castro, who boasts saying that the “thawing” was achieved without changes and without the slightest compromise on “the principles of the revolution.”

Actually, emigration from the Caribbean nation, began in the days when Fidel Castro took power in Cuba (1959). Thousands fled in those years, thinking it would be for a short time. Today, many are killed, dispersed in an infinite diaspora, without possible return to the homeland they left behind.

This first Exodus has been followed by others, “Mariel” and “La crisis de los balseros” as it was known the rafters crisis of the 90s. During the “Mariel boatlift” Fidel Castro used the occasion to shed his “undesirables”. The United States had in turn to deal with the mentally disabled, the infiltration of criminals, sent by Castro.

Today, the US government is facing another silent and unstoppable exodus, by land and by sea. Cubans trying to reach United States shores especially through Mexico and Honduras.

Recently, 50 plus Cubans arrived by sea to Puerto Rico, after an unimaginable ordeal. Immigrants often pay huge sums of monies to traffickers who carry then through the dangerous journey, through shark infested waters. Most rafters are rescued from fragile boats and swiftly returned to Cuba. Not touching physically US soil, prevents them from staying in the US. This policy has been followed since 1994, when Bill Clinton Fidel Castro signed the policy accord known as “Dry Feet, Wet Feet”

The driving force of the current exodus is the fear amongst Cubans in the island, reason being that the Cuban Adjustment Act may end as the USA-Cuba agreements kick in and with it privileges of permanent residence will also go and with it the infamous “dry feet, wet feet” political Clinton-Castro deal.

The Cuban Adjustment Act (1966) provides a special procedure under which the natives of Cuba or Cuban nationals and their spouses and children accompanying them, can apply to the United States for permanent residence status, what is commonly known as the “green card”. The “Dry feet, Wet feet” policy is applicable to Cubans only. Those who physically touch US soil may stay, those that do not, are repatriated back to Cuba. There are some cases of Cubans taken to Guantanamo Bay.

It should be noted that the massive escape from Cuba is of wide spectrum. Doctors and athletes have escaped from missions abroad and at sporting events as well.

However, if you really put your finger on it, you see that the problem is not the people but the Castro government, which over 57 years has stolen hope, depriving people of incentives, just thinking about their own gains. and of their freedom to express themselves.

Electronic reference:

Original article in Spanish language at Cubanet.org

La economia cubana segun PEW

Estado de SATS — Fri, 29 May 2015 21:04:05 +0000

Lo que sabemos sobre la economía de Cuba

POR DREW DeSilver

Dos tercios de los estadounidenses favorecen el fin de las décadas de embargo comercial de Estados Unidos hacia Cuba. Según un estudio del Centro de Investigación Pew de Enero pasado y ambas naciones según los informes, están haciendo progresos en el restablecimiento de las relaciones diplomáticas. A medida que el gobierno comunista sigue reformando poco a poco la economía de Cuba, las empresas estadounidenses – desde aerolíneas a bufetes de abogados – están explorando las oportunidades comerciales en la isla. Pero incluso si el embargo fuese levantado, no está claro qué tipo de “economía cubana” dichas empresas encontrarían.

Entender los entrecejos e incluso obtener información básica acerca de la economía de Cuba es difícil, por diversas razones.

El gobierno todavía domina la actividad económica en la isla, tanto directamente como a través de las empresas estatales fuertemente subsidiadas. Las estadísticas nacionales no siempre están completas o son fiables. Y el sistema de Cuba de dos monedas paralelas – un peso para las transacciones cotidianas entre los cubanos de a pie, y un peso convertible para la industria del turismo, el comercio exterior y el sector privado – en combinación con tipos de cambio múltiples complica las comparaciones o los debates internacionales sobre el tamaño relativo de diferentes partes de la economía.

De acuerdo con una encuesta realizada en Marzo y publicado en The Washington Post, el 79% de los cubanos dijeron que estaban insatisfechos con el sistema económico del país; 70% dijeron que querían iniciar su propio negocio. Casi dos tercios de los cubanos (64%) dijeron que normalización de las relaciones con los EE.UU. iba a cambiar el sistema económico, aunque sólo el 37% pensaba que el sistema político cambiaría.

Con tanto cambio en el aire, decidimos trabajar nuestro camino lo mejor que podíamos sorteando las dificultades de datos para elaborar un manual sobre lo que sabemos y lo que no sabemos sobre la economía cubana.

1 A pesar del embargo, los EE.UU. hacen negocios con Cuba. El año pasado, según la Oficina del Censo, los EE.UU. exportó casi $ 300 millones de dólares en productos a Cuba; casi la totalidad (96,2%) de lo que estaba en forma de carne y aves de corral, la soja, el maíz, alimento para animales y otros productos alimenticios. Las exportaciones están permitidas bajo una ley 2000 que modificó, pero sin derogar el embargo de Estados Unidos; bajo esta modificación, Cuba puede comprar determinados productos agrícolas, medicamentos y dispositivos médicos a los EE.UU, pagando en efectivo.

2 El PIB (producto interno bruto) crecimiento economico ha des-acelerado considerablemente en los últimos años. Según la Agencia Nacional de Estadísticas de Cuba, el producto interno bruto del país en 2013 fue 77.2 mil millones de pesos – que, dependiendo de qué cambios en la tasa de usos, podría equivaler a cualquier cosa, desde $ 77.2 mil millones (al tipo oficial de 1 peso convertible a $ 1) a US $ 3,2 mil millones (a la tasa interna de 24 pesos regulares para 1 peso convertible). Pero de cualquier manera, el crecimiento se ha desacelerado drásticamente desde mediados de la década de 2000: La CIA estima que el PIB de Cuba creció sólo un 1,3% el año pasado en términos (ajustados a la inflación) reales – 177 de 222 países clasificados. Una razón importante: Con los precios del petróleo a nivel mundial todavía muy por debajo de sus máximos previos a la recesión, el aceite con grandes descuentos que Venezuela envía a Cuba – algunos de los cuales Cuba re-exporta – es menos valiosa.

3 A pesar de esto el Estado Cubano sigue dominando el sector economico. En un artículo publicado el año pasado por la Asociación para el Estudio de la Economía Cubana (ASCE) el ex-economista del Fondo Monetario Internacional Ernesto Hernández-Cata estima que el sector privado y cooperativo de Cuba generó el 25,3% del PIB en 2012, en comparación con sólo el 5% en 1989. Sin embargo, el gobierno, tanto directamente como a través de las empresas estatales, seguía siendo la fuente de más de tres cuartas partes de la actividad económica de Cuba. La inversión pública representó apenas el 9,1% del PIB en 2012, frente al 14,2% en 1989, lo que Hernández-Cata dijo “revela uno de los aspectos más inquietantes de la historia económica reciente de Cuba: La debilidad de la formación de capital” (cifras oficiales del gobierno ponen economía- la inversión de capital fijo de ancho, de todas las fuentes, en el 8,3% del PIB en 2013, considerado bajo para los estándares internacionales.)

El gobierno de Cuba domina domina su economia

4Mas Cubanos están trabajando para sí mismos. En 2013, según cifras estatales, más de 424.000 cubanos (8.6% del total de trabajadores) fueron clasificados como “trabajadores por cuenta propia” cuando tan recientemente como en 2009, menos de 144.000 cubanos (2,8%) tenían la misma calificación.El sector de la “microempresa” puede ser aún mayor debido a la contratación de trabajadores a tiempo completo trabajando tiempo parcial no registrados. Ted Henken y Archibald Ritter, investigadores de Baruch College y la Universidad de Carleton, respectivamente, estiman que casi la mitad de las pequeñas empresas emplean al menos un trabajador no registrado.

5 Cuba importa mayormente bienes y exporta servicios. Tratar de leer y entender con el comercio cubano es especialmente divicil, sobre todo porque las exportaciones y las importaciones valoradas de manera efectiva de acuerdo a diferentes tipos de cambios monetarios. Como The Economist explicó recientemente, las empresas de propiedad estatal y el valor extranjeras de empresas conjuntas cada peso normal en un peso convertible – es decir, a $ 1: “La tasa sobrevaluada masivamente … crea enormes distorsiones en la economía, lo que permite a los importadores comprar bienes que equivaldrían al valor de 1 dollar por el costo de un peso cubano. “Si bien la mayor parte de las exportaciones de Cuba son en forma de servicios (como los médicos y los maestros que trabajan en el extranjero), casi la totalidad de sus importaciones son bienes (petróleo, alimentos, maquinaria y equipo, y productos químicos).

Cuba’s Numbers According To PEW

Estado de SATS — Fri, 29 May 2015 20:04:00 +0000

“What we know about Cuba’s economy”

BY DREW DESILVER

Two-thirds of Americans favor an end to the decades-long U.S. trade embargo on Cuba, a January Pew Research Center study found, and the two nations reportedly are making progress on re-establishing diplomatic relations. As the communist government continues to slowly reform Cuba’s economy, American businesses – from airlines to law firms – are exploring commercial opportunities on the island nation. But even if the embargo were to be lifted, it’s not clear just what sort of Cuban economy those businesses would find.

Getting a handle on even basic information about Cuba’s economy is difficult, for a number of reasons. The government still dominates economic activity on the island, both directly and through heavily subsidized state-owned enterprises. National statistics are not always complete or reliable. And Cuba’s system of two parallel currencies – one peso for everyday transactions among ordinary Cubans, and a “convertible peso” for the tourism industry, foreign trade and the private sector – combined with multiple exchange rates complicates any international comparisons or discussions about the relative size of different parts of the economy.

According to a survey conducted in March and published in The Washington Post, 79% of Cubans said they were dissatisfied with the country’s economic system; 70% said they wanted to start their own business. Nearly two-thirds of Cubans (64%) said normalizing relations with the U.S. would change the economic system, though only 37% thought the political system would change.

With so much change in the air, we decided to work our way as best we could through the data difficulties to put together a primer on what we know, and don’t know, about the Cuban economy.

1Despite the embargo, the U.S. does do business with Cuba. Last year, according to the Census Bureau, the U.S. exported nearly $300 million worth of products to Cuba; nearly all (96.2%) of that was in the form of meat and poultry, soybeans, corn, animal feed and other foodstuffs. The exports are permitted under a 2000 law that modified, but did not repeal, the U.S. embargo; under it, Cuba can buy certain agricultural products, medicines and medical devices from the U.S., but must pay in cash.

2Growth has slowed sharply in recent years. According to Cuba’s national statistical agency, the country’s gross domestic product in 2013 was 77.2 billion pesos – which, depending on which exchange rate one uses, could equate to anything from $77.2 billion (at the official rate of 1 convertible peso to $1) to $3.2 billion (at the internal rate of 24 regular pesos to 1 convertible peso). But either way, growth has slowed dramatically from the mid-2000s: The CIA estimates that Cuba’s GDP grew just 1.3% last year in real (inflation-adjusted) terms – 177th out of 222 countries ranked. One big reason: With global oil prices still well below their pre-recession highs, the heavily discounted oil that Venezuela sends Cuba – some of which Cuba re-exports – is less valuable.

3Despite economic reforms, the state still dominates. In a paper published last year by the Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, former International Monetary Fund economist Ernesto Hernandez-Cata estimated that Cuba’s private and cooperative sector generated 25.3% of GDP in 2012, compared with just 5% in 1989. But the government, both directly and through state-owned enterprises, was still the source of more than three-quarters of Cuba’s economic activity. Government investment represented just 9.1% of GDP in 2012, versus 14.2% in 1989, which Hernandez-Cata said “reveals one of the most disturbing aspects of Cuba’s recent economic history: the weakness of capital formation.” (Official government figures put economy-wide fixed capital investment, from all sources, at 8.3% of GDP in 2013, considered low by international standards.)

4More Cubans are working for themselves. In 2013, according to state figures, more than 424,000 Cubans (8.6% of all workers) were classified as self-employed; as recently as 2009, fewer than 144,000 Cubans (2.8%) were.

The “microenterprise” sector may be even bigger due to the hiring of unregistered full- and part-time workers. Ted Henken and Archibald Ritter, researchers at Baruch College and Carleton University, respectively, estimate that as many as half of small enterprises employ at least one unregistered worker.

5Cuba mostly imports goods and exports services. Getting a clear read on Cuban trade is especially tricky, not least because exports and imports are effectively valued using different exchange rates. As The Economist recently explained, state-owned firms and foreign joint ventures value each ordinary peso at one convertible peso – that is, at $1: “The massively overvalued rate … creates huge distortions in the economy, allowing importers to buy a dollar’s-worth of goods for one peso.” While most of Cuba’s exports are in the form of services (such as doctors and teacher working overseas), nearly all of its imports are goods (petroleum, foodstuffs, machinery and equipment, and chemicals).

Source:

PEW Research original article link

Alarming Increase In The Repression Levels Against The Ladies In White in Cuba

Estado de SATS — Mon, 04 May 2015 02:25:32 +0000

In the last couple of weeks, repression levels against the world-wide known group “Ladies in White”, other opposition activists and human rights advocates in Cuba has increased to what now surmounts to alarming levels.

Raul Castro’s government using paramilitary groups disguised as “upset Cubans workers responding to mercenaries” has increased both aggression and violence levels against peaceful activists. We think it is the result of different peaceful groups exercising their right to protests in public, as well as their rights to talk in public, talking about Cuban political prisoners.

Activists in Cuba are now routinely being subjected to and having to endure:
1 Mob attacks and beatings
2 Physical abuse
3 Mob style stabbings
4 Various types of torture
5 to express kidnappings (short,aggressive and awe ordeals, where one is left in the middle of nowhere)
6 Arbitrary arrests.

With the number of all of the aforementioned skyrocketing. All of these are well documented by internationally recognized monitors as as AI (Amnesty International)

The Forum for Rights and Freedoms and Civil Rights Defenders warns the international community on the deteriorating situation of Cubans who dare work in the field of Human Rights. With grave concern we annotate that we have noticed indifference on the part of the international community, most notably, the United States and some European Union nations, as well as the Vatican. It is now common knowledge, the latter played a critical role in facilitating the talks between the Cuban government and the present U.S. administration, which later paved the way resulting in the agreement made public on December 17th, 2014. We believe the current escalation of aggression on the part of the Cuban government against our family members, friends, even our children is directly linked to the silence and indifference of the international community.

The Universal Declaration of Human Rights – of which Cuba is signatory – The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights – of which the government of Raul Castro signed but has yet to ratify– and as the UN Special Rapporteur on the Rights to Freedom of Peaceful Assembly and of Association Maina Kiai put it in a recent writing, governments shall ensure the full exercise of freedom of assembly, association and peaceful demonstration.

The Forum for Rights and Freedoms and Civil Rights Defenders calls on the international community to act NOW against the dangers that Cuban human rights defenders are facing. It is time for the American and European governments, usually eager to improve their relations with the Cuban government, to use their leverage speaking out against the worsening of what is is already a challenging life.

Antonio G. Rodiles, Coordinating Committee, Forum for Rights and Freedoms

Erik Jennische, Programme Director for Latin America, CivilRightsDefenders

Contact:
Contact CivilRights Defenders

Article Link:

Alarming Repression against “The Ladies In White”

This is already a path of no return Interview with Antonio G. Rodiles, Estado de SATS Project Coordinator, by Ernesto Santana Zaldívar

Estado de SATS — Fri, 25 Jan 2013 11:33:32 +0000

(from July 2012)

Antonio Rodiles, photo by Ernesto Santana

HAVANA, Cuba, www.cubanet.org

Introductory Note: On July 24, 2012, during the funeral of the opposition leader Oswaldo Payá, there were violent arrests of several activists and dissidents, among them Antonio Rodiles, who was held for 24 hours at the Fourth Police Station and interrogated by State Security, two years to the day after the first meeting organized by the Estado de SATS project. A few days earlier, Rodiles had granted this interview to Cubanet.

Estado de SATS (State of SATS) was born two years ago, but it has been mostly in the last year that this project has generated more interest and has experienced major growth, despite the efforts of the political police against it. Many people, on the other hand, are asking what could be the meaning of such a peculiar name. Antonio Rodiles explains it very clearly: “Estado de SATS is a term used on the theater that represents the moment when all the energy is concentrated to begin to action, or when an athlete is at the precise moment before the starting signal. It is the concentration that later explodes.”

There is no description more graphic and exact for the spirit of what emerged in July of 2010, when the first meeting was held at Casa Gaia, in Old Havana, organized by Rodiles, a mathematical physicist, and his friend Jorge Calaforra, a Cuban-Polish civil engineer, and with the notable support of the OMNI Project and the participation of the theater group Cuerpo Adentro and Darwin Estacio, who organized a painting exhibition.

Antonio Rodiles himself provides more details in this interview with Cubanet, in the midst of the intense undertaking that occupies most of his time.

Cubanet: How did the idea of the Estado de SATS project emerge and develop?

Antonio Rodiles: What we set out to do in the first meeting was to break the ice; to do something independent where we could generate debate about current topics from different perspectives, artists, intellectuals, professionals. It was a very interesting event that lasted three days, and the result was interesting. There were about seven lectures and three panels, an exhibit of paintings, a presentation of the film Memories of Underdevelopment, which had just been released, and on the last day there was a concert mixing jazz and hip hop.

This first concert was very positive and gave momentum to the idea of continuing, always maintaining the idea of the confluence of art and thinking. The reality of a country is very complex. There are different approaches, and we believe art has a lot to bring. There are things an intellectual or a professional sees that others don’t see, and an artist sees many of them. The ways of approaching problems are also different.

CN: We know that some time ago there were people who expressed the opinion that Estado de SATS was an “opposition-lite” project, prepared by the government. We know the answers you gave at that time. However, what would you respond today now that the project has continued to grow and develop?

AR: I think this is part of a strategy by State Security which has tried to spread this opinion to create internal divisions among political and social activists in Cuba. Everyone can say what they want, but it seems to me that this falls in the plane of conspiracy theories, because in the plane of reality we see that people with distinct visions and positions have participated here.

Just yesterday we had a meeting with three of the seventy-five former prisoners of the Black Spring, Eduardo Díaz Fleitas, José Daniel Ferrer and Ángel Moya. We also had Berta Soler, Wilfredo Vallín, Manuel Cuesta, Yoani Sánchez, Elizardo Sánchez, Alexis Jardines, Raudel Collazo, OMNI ZONA FRANCA and many more. They debated everything.

Ultimately, we have met with everyone to call upon the government directly with the Citizen Demand for Another Cuba, which is part of a campaign we are initiating to ask the government to ratify the Covenants they already signed (the United Nations Covenant of Civil Rights and Political Rights and the Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights). A campaign we want to carry out throughout the whole country and in which everyone who wants to can participate.

If anyone still thinks that this project is orchestrated by the government, they are definitely suffering from paranoia. Sometimes I think it’s important to talk about this so that it’s perfectly clear, but other times I feel that it’s a waste of time. Anyone, if they are well-intentioned, simply by looking at the work we’ve done this year, which for us has been huge, can understand the truth of our project. To entangle us in so many explanations and responses seems to me exactly what State Security wants: distract you with absurd details so you waste your time and energy.

CN: What importance do you attribute to the space for dialogue and reflection that this project has opened? In your view, what has been the impact of the work done so far?

AR: What has pleased me the most, personally, is being able to show the faces of civil society that the Cuban government tries to hide. They always say that those who oppose them are criminals, mercenaries, people with no vision of the future, no plan for the country, the worst of the worst. To show this range of faces and visions definitely gives the idea that when we can end this long nightmare, there is a clear prospect of a much better country.

It has also been very interesting to establish friendships with so many people, or that many individuals who didn’t know each other do now and they know what they think, what they see and how to collaborate. Another important aspect is that it has created a public space for debate. Here there is no room for the powers-that-be description: “you are my friend or you are my enemy.” Here people can coexist with others who think differently, but who ultimately also want a better country. That exchange is essential to a democracy.

It would be great is spaces like this could emerge across the entire country, if people could do it from their own inspiration. It’s very important to signal that tons of spaces like this exist in democratic societies. This may seem strange only in Cuba because we live under a totalitarian regime.

A process of maturation is indisputably happening in civil society, but new technologies are also contributing: to have a channel on YouTube, or to record a video and distribute it among people has a very important role, because people that see this can get interested in coming, participating, and knowing what happens. At first about fifteen or twenty people came, currently, at some meetings, we have observed over ninety or a hundred people.

CN: What new purposes and plans are fueling the project at this time?

AR: We would like projects like this to spread throughout the whole country, that here increasingly more people with different interests come, including from official institutions. That’s why we are focusing on greater awareness of what we do.

Another plan, on which we are concentrating great energy, is the Citizen Demand for Another Cuba. We believe it is very important that, from civil society, we demand our rights from the government and that, starting from those rights, there is a democratic transformation in the country. We are working very intensely to spread this whole conception of the new society, of what we want the change to be.

We are also very interested in the exchange with Cubans who are outside of Cuba. We have tried several times and we will keep trying. Almost always it has to be through recorded videos.

CN: Can you mention some of the procedures that the political police have used the to deter or derail the project?

AR: They have used many. Starting out, as they thought I would leave the country, they tried to blackmail me by taking away my permit to reside in the exterior, which they did a few months after the meetings began in my house. Then they threatened my parents with withdrawing the license they have to rent rooms, and even mentioned the possibility of taking our house.

The guests who are invited are threatened that, if they come, there will be reprisals. Also many of the public who come are warned not to come again. On some occasions they have organized operations around the house. We are very close to the offices of the National Aquarium and they normally mount their operations there, although lately they are being discreet.

They have also installed two permanent video cameras facing the house. Many time they harass people who leave the meetings, asking for their identity cards in an intimidating way. In short, they closely monitor us and the work they do is systematic in continuing to try to strangle people, especially economically.

The idea is to isolate you, set you apart, and continuously reduce the impact you can have with your work. I think that as the project continues to grow, they will become more nervous, but we hope that they understand that this is a path of no return.

CN: How do you see the current situation of our country, the real possibilities of change?

AR: Look, it seems to me that, almost a year and a half after the Communist Party Congress, which raised many expectations in some who are too optimistic, if not naive, and after the Party Conference, people have realized that it was all words. The government does not have the ability to change. It’s an ancient government with ancient ideas. There is no human capital in the halls of power and they are greatly afraid, because they know that there is discontent and the hopes of citizens are completely different from what they are offering.

This fear creates in them an unchanging attitude that corners us in an even more critical situation. Moreover, economically the country is in a quagmire. The measures taken have failed to capitalize on anything. It was because the company Repsol didn’t strike oil. There is no foreign investment of any magnitude.

And something that has become a sword of Damocles is the Chavez factor. If he will be re-elected or not, if he survives or not. The question of Venezuela is not only the more than one hundred thousand barrels of oil per day, but also the number of professionals who are working there. If they suddenly have to return to Cuba without the possibility of employment, they will become a mass with a high level of discontent.

I think that the political elite has been delaying and delaying solutions and what has been created is an accumulation of problems that are increasingly insoluble. I do not think they have the ability to solve anything because the problems are now completely overwhelming.

That’s where I think the Citizen Demand for Another Cuba plays an important role, presenting as a first step the restitution of our political, economic, cultural, social, civil rights. I think from that restitution there can clearly be a transition to democracy.

If, as citizens, we can organize a nationwide campaign where people mobilize and demand those rights from the government, and following the ratification of the Covenants there can be constitutional changes implemented in the penal code, and we recover the basic liberties, I definitely think the country would go forward to a radical change.

I think the most important thing is to think about how to make the change, specifically; not to say we want a transition or that Cuba wants a transition, but to think about what kind of country we want.

CN: Would you like to add anything to what you said?

AR: Yes, I would like to invite Cubans outside of Cuba to join this campaign. One way to help is to sign the Demand for Another Cuba. Another is to bring materials from outside, the printed text, the videos that have been done to explain the proposal of what we’re trying to do, and also to bring information about the Covenants and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and to give it to their families.

Some may see this as something small, but if every household in Cuba could know what is being requested and in what form we are proposing changes in the country, that would be a tremendous step. As long as our desire for change is an abstraction, we won’t connect; but from the moment we say how to do it and we all push in that direction, the change happens, because the vast majority desires it.

The ratification of the Covenants would benefit the Yoruba Association, which advocates respect for gender differences, all the churches, the musicians, all citizens. So everyone should know the meaning of these Covenants and what benefits their ratification would bring.

I think the conditions are ripe for this to become a formidable campaign. I’ve talked to many people, and they tell me this demand seems very sensible, that it is relevant to beginning to untie this knot. Not even the government could say that this is a crazy idea.

The government must understand that the more prolonged the situation the worse the end will be, because there will be a larger quantity of accumulated problems. I think we are on the threshold of achieving a transition in Cuba, but only if it takes the pace it should. If not, the impulse will cool and then we would fall into apathy and the change could happen spontaneously and out of control, generating violence and leading us all into a dead end.

Ernesto Santana and Antonio Rodiles

Original interview: July 2012. Posted on Estado de Sats 17 January 2013.